TERRORISM – Some Numbers

Anyone, indeed, everyone involved in the consequences of what we today call terrorism is deserving of our concern and of our sympathy. I offer, unreservedly and for what little it can possibly be worth, my concern and my sympathy to any who have been so involved who are willing and still able to accept it. They, quite understandably, will have a completely different perspective, sometimes a quite surprising perspective, to the rest of us. I am coming at this problem from a very detached position and my views, and, indeed, my conclusions may well not be too well received by those whose involvement could be much more direct than mine. So be it. It would be extremely odd if this were not so.

I want, at this point, to examine some figures. We are, as usual, being quite ruthlessly and utterly cynically manipulated by our politicians and/or those in charge of our day to day destinies.. This, usually, is mainly in pursuit of their gain, their aggrandisement and to our ultimate detriment. We are, of course, for the most part too stupid to see this and/or too bone idle to do anything about it. They, of course, realise this and take advantage of it – and why shouldn’t they ? The truth of the matter is that the so called terrorism that we see today is really very small beer. By the side of what has happened in the past, in fact, it all borders on the trivial. It is illegal, immoral, dangerously criminal and frequently fatal - but terrorism it is not.

When Joshua destroyed the cities of Jericho and Hazor at the behest of a god who, historically, was far from averse to a bit of terrorism; not to mention the host of minor settlements who, not wanting to surrender were also wantonly annihilated, he was ultimately responsible for around 100,000 deaths and the bloody minded destruction of all associated habitation. The total human population of the planet, at this time only amounted to around 40,000,000. Joshua, effectively, slaughtered a quarter of one percent of the total world population. Over the millennia things do not appear to have improved very much in that part of the planet and it is still going on!

The Romans did rather better in the events which included the sacking of Jerusalem in 70 A.D. They managed, on this occasion, to slaughter some 1,400,000 – around 0.78% of the world’s total human population at that time – in a matter of days. The Spanish Inquisition managed to burn, on the average, three people each day for rather more than 300 consecutive years – around 330,000 altogether. Adolf Hitler could probably be held directly responsible for some 10,000,000 deaths – about 0.44% of the world’s population at the time, but it took him a few years. The 9/11 episode of the Twin Towers resulted in the deaths of some 3,500 people or 0.000055% of the world’s population. To put this figure into perspective we should note that on your normal average day, and from all causes, there are around 250,000 deaths across the planet as a matter of routine. This is not an exact calculation, I’ll leave that to the demographers, but it is sufficiently near the mark for the purposes of this discussion. Leaving aside all emotion, and considering only the mathematics, an extra 3500 deaths on any particular day is not really a significant blip.

We should not overlook Attila the Hun, Genghis Khan or even Boadicea who, although very dear to our hearts, accounted for some 150,000 quite savage deaths before being stopped in her tracks. I have found it difficult to obtain reliable and comprehensive figures for the affair in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s although in the opinion of many the ham-fisted Euro/American interference eventually resulted in probably at least as many more deaths as were consequent upon the original conflicts. However, that still leaves us having to decide whether ethnic cleansing, however revolting, satisfies the definition of terrorism or is merely yet another example of man’s inhumanity to man.

As you will see from the above, the Roman’s have it by the length of a street, and one of the primary reasons for this was their total disregard for human life – not only other people’s but their own as well. Our problem today, that we are largely disregarding, is the re-emergence of this total disregard for their own lives exhibited by many of the fundamentalists currently involved in a battle of wills with governments. Is it possible that, as time goes on, these fundamentalists will be able to produce terror on the scale of some of their more robust predecessors ? The answer is probably yes.

Taking into account the increase in world population, then to emulate the Romans, our champions in the above league table, the modern extremist would have to go for a death toll of about 50,000,000 and a corresponding amount of damage. Impossible ? Actually, no. Consider the city and urban sprawl that constitutes modern Tokyo. I have selected Tokyo for no other reason than that population-wise it is the most heavily populated urban sprawl on Earth. Within this mighty conurbation there live, sleep and generally get on with their daily round some 31,000,000 souls. So, there do exist targets with a population of the right order of magnitude. What about weaponry? The answer, of course, is a nuclear bomb or rather several more or less simultaneous nuclear bombs. Not possible !? Wrong again.

Plain, straightforward, averagely dirty and not terribly efficient atomic bombs are not difficult to build. It has been said before, but I will repeat it, that an intelligent group of year 13 students using facilities present in many of our schools and sixth form colleges and designs that have been widely published could put one – or even several – together without a great deal of trouble. The comic book scenarios that you read on the internet, disavowing this, are there with government approval only to allay your fears. Dig deeper and you will eventually find the truth. The engineering of such a device is really quite straight forward. The only major problem, which has protected us up to now, is getting hold of the appropriate fissile material. Who has it, where they have it, what they are doing with it and who is producing more of it are all very carefully monitored. Witness the current furore over Iran. Unfortunately there’s several thousand years of human history which says, quite unequivocally that this situation cannot, and will not, last.

A considerable amount of such material went missing when the U.S.S.R collapsed and in spite of the fact that that furore has died down and everyone is keeping very quiet about it I have not heard that much of it was ever found. There are several other examples, involving several different countries, and if it all got into the wrong hands there’s probably about enough to make a pretty efficient job of destroying the planet. Combine this with the fact that the deliverers of such bombs would very likely be very happy to be martyrs and you immediately solve the two remaining problems which are transport to the target – the complete device will weigh around 5 tons - and ignition. You solve the first problem by building on the detonation site and the second by setting the thing off yourself, manually.

I’m sorry; I’m not writing a terrorist manual – they know all of this and a lot more besides – I am merely trying to awaken some interest in the facts that:-

1. However we define it we are not suffering from anything even vaguely resembling real terrorism - yet.
2. If we do not tackle the problem properly, and pretty quickly, then all history dictates that we pretty soon will be.
3. At the moment we are all rushing about like the proverbial demented hens tackling (mostly incompetently and with little success) the symptoms of the malady and totally ignoring the disease itself.

The harsh reality is that the so called terrorists of today are mostly either disaffected petty criminals, disaffected zealots with an axe to grind, renegade governments mostly led by disaffected petty criminals or disaffected zealots with an axe to grind or those who feel, rightly or wrongly that they are so down trodden and oppressed that they have no alternative strategy. Fortunately for us none of them, as yet, have actually got it together with nuclear material.

Mao Tse-Tung and his terrorists did get it together, without nuclear help, and eventually ruled China. His political descendents still do. George Washington and his terrorists also got it together, subsequent to the Boston Tea-Party, and founded the United States of America. Their political descendents are still in charge there as well, although it took a civil war to hold it all together. The Irgun Svai Leumi got it together in Palestine and its founder / leader, Menachem Begin, eventually became the Prime Minister of Israel and leader of the likud party. Interestingly enough they have all became possessors of the nuclear option subsequently. There in fact, we also have three classic examples of one time terrorists having realised their aims, going 'respectable' and labelling all the competition as terrorists. It’s as predictable as night following day. There are many, many more such examples. Hugh Gaitskell once observed, with perfect, if somewhat cynical, truth, “All terrorists, at the invitation of the Government, eventually end up with drinks at the Dorchester (hotel)”.

Just what can we conclude from all of this ? We must first acknowledge that the Romans did practice terrorism, that they were terrorists and that they did it on a scale that makes Osama Bi Laden look like a petty bumbling amateur. Again, don’t blame me – I only look at the results. We must further acknowledge that we have a very ambivalent approach to the problem. Joe Bloggs, trying to effect change by force for whatever reason, is a terrorist. However, once Joe Bloggs is successful in his endeavour and embraces some semblance of so-called 'democracy' he becomes a respected member of the world’s elite. If he is sufficiently powerful that he frightens the rest of the world’s elite half to death he can even join them without espousing any form of democracy. We have no staying power and our condemnation, or lack of it, is based purely on pragmatism. This may well be the only practical option but that does not stop it being an exercise based on hypocrisy.

Finally we must acknowledge that unless we start tackling the root causes of the problem, instead of running about like those aforementioned demented hens after the consequences have struck home, we are never going to make any progress.